Mid Feb recap

It’s been a quiet (silent) month in the CME  Case Shiller futures with no trades.  Bid/Ask spreads continue to grind in, and edge higher  (in search of a level that Feb MTD changeswill prompt a trade?) across almost all expirations and regions.  (See table to the right. A table detailing bid/ask spreads and changes by contract is included in the Reports section or one can access here. )

BOS has tightened the most as I’ve narrowed bid/ask spreads in an effort to create some open interest in BOS.  (Every other region has at least 1 OI, and every region has at least 1 OI in the Nov ’15 expiration).  I’d be VERY open to getting a trade done in BOSX15.

Feb ’16 contracts have tightened on both tighter G15 markets (which feed into G16 on one-year calendar spreads) as well as some narrowing of Nov ’15/Feb ’16 spreads.

Nov ’17 spreads have benefited from some intercity spread orders (e.g. MIA).

The expiring Feb ’15 (G15) contracts has spreads that are all <= to 1.0.  Anyone looking to test their Case Shiller forecasting model is encouraged to bid/offer/trade until trading stops at 3 PM (EST) on Monday.  I’d also be happy to post projections after the close.  We can then compare results on Tuesday morning after Case Shiller numbers for Dec. 2014 are released.

The CUS and LAX contracts tend to have the tightest bid/ask spreads.  (The tightest two spreads by expiration are highlighted in green.  The widest two are in red.) DEN, MIA and NYM have some expirations (beyond the Feb ’15 cycle) that make it into the top two.  LAV and SDG lead in contracts with the widest bid/ask spreads.  Any help there would be appreciated.  In addition, I’m open to any intercity spread inquiries Feb 17 bid_askreferencing these contracts that might help narrow spreads.

Open interest for Feb is only 8 contracts (and with only a total of 15 across Feb, May and Aug) so there’s plenty of time to build up new interest.

My sense is that bid/ask spreads have been tightening in a vacuum of activity but also that that narrowing will address concerns about bid/ask spreads having been too wide.

I’d note that the CUSX16 contract has been quoted with < 1.0 bid/ask spread for almost 90 days now.  Anyone looking to express a macro view on home prices would be encouraged to participate there.

As always, feel free to PM me with any questions, or “axes” that you might want touted.  You can reach me at johnhdolan@homepricefutures.com